Decoding RaymondsIndex: Why "Accurate" and "Useful" Are Different Tests
On 16 June 2026, Korea's Financial Supervisory Service released its analysis of FY2025 audit opinions for listed companies. Most coverage led with the alarming number: among companies that received a clean opinion but carried a going-concern emphasis paragraph, 32.1% were delisted or received a modified opinion the following year. It is an alarming number. It is also the least interesting thing in the release. The opinion line is not the signal Of 2,702 listed companies analysed, 2,637 — 97.6% — received an unqualified opinion. That figure has not left a narrow band since Korea's 2019 external audit reform: 97.2% in 2021, 97.9% in 2022, 97.5% in 2023, 97.5% in 2024, 97.6% in 2025. Any variable that assigns the same value to roughly 97 out of 100 observations carries almost no classifying power, regardless of how carefully each individual value was determined. This is a property of the distribution, not of the auditors. Where the separation actually lives The separation s...