RaymondsIndex

In 2026, U.S. companies are on track to buy back a record amount of their own stock — close to $1 trillion across the S&P 500, according to S&P Global. On the surface, that looks like strength: firms returning cash to shareholders. But look at the arithmetic underneath. Index revenue grew roughly 8.8% this year, while earnings per share grew 14.2%. A large slice of that "earnings growth" — by most estimates two to four percentage points — didn't come from selling more goods or services. It came from dividing the same profit across fewer shares. That gap is the reason our Capital Efficiency Index (CEI) exists, and it's a good lens for understanding what the index actually measures. What CEI reads CEI is not a verdict on whether a company returned cash. Buybacks and dividends are neutral facts — a healthy firm with genuinely no better use for its capital and a firm hollowing itself out can post the exact same payout line. CEI is built to tell them apart. It weig...

Two data points arrived from opposite ends of the same pattern this month, and almost nobody put them side by side. The first is Korean. As of June 19, 2026, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix together accounted for 54.76% of total KOSPI market capitalization — ₩4,162 trillion combined. What makes this remarkable is not the number but the path. When the index first crossed 5,000, the pair was 36.31%. At 6,000, 38.47%. At 7,000, 44.51%. At 8,000, 48.79%. The two names passed 40% for the first time only in March, and 50% by late May. Along the way, SK hynix overtook Samsung Electronics for the top market-cap spot — a reversal roughly 25 years and 7 months in the making. The second is Japanese. Listed companies there announced ¥16.2 trillion of share buybacks in January–May 2026 alone, up 34% year on year and a record for the period, closing in on the whole of the prior year's total. Fiscal 2025 announcements reached ¥22.32 trillion. The engine is the unwinding of cross-shareholdings,...

 Start with a number that doesn't behave the way you expect. This month the SEC filed proposed consent judgments in its case against Robert Alan Yedid, Andrew Kaufman, and Mark Jacobs. Yedid was a managing director at LifeSci Advisors, a firm that handles investor communications for pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. In that role he obtained material nonpublic information about the firm's clients — drug trial results, financial and regulatory developments, pending mergers and acquisitions — and, from 2019 through 2024, passed it to two long-time friends. The SEC charged the three in August 2025; combined illegal profits exceeded $500,000. Under the proposed judgments, Kaufman disgorges $391,580, Yedid $167,820, and Jacobs $36,138. All three consented to permanent injunctions. Yedid additionally accepted a bar from associating with a broker or dealer and from serving as an officer or director of a public company. The judgments remain subject to court approval. The numbe...

1. Two numbers, two ends of the same process On 10 June 2026, the Bank of Korea released its 2025 Corporate Business Analysis. Among 34,456 externally audited non-financial companies, 39.9% had an interest coverage ratio below 100% — up from 38.5% a year earlier, and the highest figure the series has recorded. The share of firms running an operating loss reached 28.2%, also a record. Separately, the Federation of Korean Industries reported on 30 June that 27.6% of listed Korean companies now qualify as marginal firms — three consecutive years of interest coverage below 1 — against 11.8% in 2017. On 9 July, Tokyo Shoko Research reported that Japan recorded 5,346 corporate failures in the first half of 2026 , up 7.1% year on year and above 5,000 for the first time since 2014. Ninety percent of those firms employed fewer than ten people. Total liabilities of failed firms reached ¥734bn, up 6.3% — the first increase in four years — and large failures (over ¥1bn in liabilities) hit 114,...

Two directions, one destination On March 26, 2026, Hanwha Solutions (009830.KS) announced a ₩2.4 trillion rights offering. The stated purpose was debt repayment. Korea's Financial Supervisory Service requested revised registration statements twice — April 9 and April 30 — and the company cut the offering to ₩1.8 trillion. On May 26 it reduced the planned debt repayment by a further ₩100 billion, landing at ₩1.7 trillion: the third revision. The FSS requested nothing further, and the statement took effect June 10. The final allocation: ₩900 billion for future investment — perovskite tandem pilot line upgrades (₩100 billion), tandem mass-production line construction and TOPCon capacity expansion (₩800 billion) — and ₩800 billion for debt repayment. Existing shareholders subscribe July 22–23, public offering July 27–28, listing August 11. Read the sequence, not the total. Every reduction the regulator extracted came out of the debt line. The investment line never shrank through thr...

This week offered a clean illustration of a question that rarely makes headlines but decides shareholder outcomes: when a company raises capital, does that capital become a productive asset — or does it simply move around inside a network? A KOSDAQ-listed company priced a ₩22.5bn third-party allotment, subscribed entirely by its own largest shareholder. About ₩8bn of the proceeds repays a loan owed to that same shareholder; roughly ₩14.5bn buys additional shares of an affiliate, lifting the company's stake in that affiliate from 64.0% to 85.26%. The three entities involved already form a circular ownership loop — each is, directly or indirectly, a major shareholder of the next. New equity enters at one point in the circle and exits at another, without ever reaching a factory floor, a product line, or a new market. What capital efficiency actually measures. It is tempting to treat a capital raise as a growth signal. It isn't — not on its own. The relevant question is what the...