The Zombie Pattern: How Distressed Companies Drain Before They Fall
There is a particular kind of failure that doesn't look like failure at all. The loan keeps performing. The covenants hold. The quarterly statements arrive on time. And yet the company underneath is quietly running out of the one thing that keeps a business alive — the capacity to reinvest in itself. This week, that pattern showed up most clearly in private credit. When a borrower can no longer pay interest out of operating cash flow, a growing share of loans don't default; they convert to payment-in-kind (PIK), where the unpaid interest is simply capitalized onto the principal. The debt keeps "performing" on paper. But as one industry analysis put it, the operating pressure is deferred, not resolved. Fitch's U.S. private credit default rate has risen from 4.6% at the end of 2024 to 5.8% by January 2026. More telling is the sentiment inside the industry itself: in Ocorian's May 2026 survey of 300 private-capital executives, 96% expect PIK usage to increase ov...