Decoding RaymondsIndex: CEI (Capital Efficiency Index), Explained
In 2026, U.S. companies are on track to buy back a record amount of their own stock — close to $1 trillion across the S&P 500, according to S&P Global. On the surface, that looks like strength: firms returning cash to shareholders. But look at the arithmetic underneath. Index revenue grew roughly 8.8% this year, while earnings per share grew 14.2%. A large slice of that "earnings growth" — by most estimates two to four percentage points — didn't come from selling more goods or services. It came from dividing the same profit across fewer shares. That gap is the reason our Capital Efficiency Index (CEI) exists, and it's a good lens for understanding what the index actually measures. What CEI reads CEI is not a verdict on whether a company returned cash. Buybacks and dividends are neutral facts — a healthy firm with genuinely no better use for its capital and a firm hollowing itself out can post the exact same payout line. CEI is built to tell them apart. It weig...