March 2026 | Relational Risk Evangelist Noah
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key facts
- Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen: Hirschman's theory from 1945 explains what's happening in 2026
- Hirschman (1945): “Countries strategically design their trade structures to make each other dependent.”
- Source: Project Syndicate, March 10, 2026
- Reality: US-China technological decoupling, Trump tariff war, EU-US trade tensions
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Why a book from 80 years ago predicted the present
Albert O. Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (1945):
- Trade is not an economic exchange, but the design of power relations
- When a country becomes dependent on another country, that dependence becomes power.
- The weaker party loses more if it stops — this is the geopolitics of trade
→ 2026: China’s rare earths, America’s semiconductors, Europe’s energy — all read by this formula
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Relational risk analysis
On the surface: trade policy debates between countries
In practice: structural changes through which capital is redeployed in geoeconomic relations.
- Decoupling between the US and China → Explosion of portfolio risk of funds invested in the global supply chain
- Trump tariffs → pressure to relocate global production base → reorganization of corporate-investor relationships
- When geoeconomic dependence is severed, the capital that had bet on that relationship is lost first.
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The link between capital polarization and geoeconomics
1. US AI Big Tech + Chinese Manufacturing → Interdependence Structure
2. Winner in decoupling: The side that controls the dependency.
3. Losers: Funds, companies, and individual investors who invested capital in the relationship.
→ Geoeconomic risk is the national version of relational risk
→ The greatest risk is where the network of relationships between companies intersects with the power relationships between countries.
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Current geoeconomic relational risk hotspots
Relationship Axis — Risk — Affected Capital
US-China — Technology and semiconductor decoupling — Global tech fund, supply chain ETF
US-EU — tariffs + defense cost conflict — European export companies, defense funds
China-Central Asia — Deepening dependency on Belt and Road — Infrastructure funds, emerging market bonds
US-Iran War — Energy Supply Chain Impact — Crude Oil Funds, Oil Companies
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Relational Risk Checklist for Individual Investors
1. What proportion of the sales of the company I invested in is from regions with geoeconomic tension?
2. Are there companies from countries involved in the dispute in the company's supply chain?
3. Do key executives have networks with specific national governments and agencies?
4. When geopolitical risks occur, how is the company's network reorganized?
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A word from the preacher
Trade is not economics. It's a relationship.
And that relationship is now becoming a weapon.
Hirschman said it 80 years ago, and Eichengreen brought it up again in 2026.
History repeats itself. However, it is better not to repeat capital losses.
Relational risk maps all relationships between countries, companies, and capital.
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■ Reference materials
- Project Syndicate, Barry Eichengreen, "Albert Hirschman Strikes Back" (2026.03.10)
- Hirschman, A.O., "National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade" (1945/1980)
- RaymondsRisk white paper: https://www.konnect-ai.net/whitepaper
#relational risk #raymondsrisk #raymondsindex #konnectai #geoeconomics #trade war #capital polarization #Hirschman
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