Oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel.
The exchange rate fell below 1,500 won for the first time since the global financial crisis.
The moment these two numbers move simultaneously, what individual investors should pay attention to is not the stock price.
Who holds the CB (convertible bonds)?
Macro Shock → CB Chain Explosion Mechanism
Raw material and energy costs soar → Operating profit plummets → Companies are under financial pressure one after another
Exchange rate: 1,500 won → Foreign funds flee → Direct impact on companies with weak corporate governance
Options for major shareholders in times of financial stress: Additional issuance of CB
CB issuance → Existing CB acquirer conversion event → Share price dilution → Individual acquisition
This trend was repeated every time there was an economic downturn or financial shock.
The same pattern appeared during the corona shock in 2020 and the surge in interest rates in 2022.
Characteristics of risky companies today
From a relational risk perspective, companies with overlapping risk signals at this time have in common:
Has a history of CB issuance within the last 12 months
Key executives come from companies related to energy, construction, and trade.
Major shareholder's stake is falling below 30%
Relationship network connection between CB acquirer and majority shareholder confirmed
Financial statements do not yet reflect this signal.
The network of relationships moves first.
Implications for individual investors
In a time like now where macro shocks occur continuously, it is insufficient to look only at financial soundness.
The CB structure and executive network hidden behind the numbers must be read together.
RaymondsRisk tracks the relational risks of 3,109 KOSPI and KOSDAQ companies in real time.
This is why 85.9% of the 276 companies with trading suspensions were captured in advance.
key message
Read the relationships behind the numbers.
The signal has already started when the financial statements are in order.
RaymondsRisk White Paper: https://www.konnect-ai.net/whitepaper
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