The government announced the Value Up Program.
It is said that companies are moving toward 1x PBR.
But why is the market’s response still lukewarm?
The investment gap ratio is the answer.
What is the investment disparity rate?
Investment disparity rate = the difference between the rate of return generated by a company and the rate of return required by investors.
To put it simply:
The company needs to make 10% profit, but only makes 8%.
- The 2% difference is the investment disparity rate.
Companies whose investment gap ratio is consistently negative:
→ A company whose value decreases as it spends capital
→ Downward pressure on stock prices continues in the long term
→ This is why the PBR is less than 1x
The reality of the investment gap in the Korean market
RaymondsIndex analysis based on:
A significant number of companies across KOSPI and KOSDAQ continue to have negative investment disparity rates.
- Particularly focused on companies with weak governance structures
- Foreign institutions already know this and apply the discount rate
Why is this like this?
① Investment decision making ignoring capital cost
Force investment even if ROE is lower than WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)
- The board of directors approves this (lack of independence)
② Tunneling structure
Kim et al. (2021): Expropriation structure results in increased cost of capital
- Priority investment in profits for major shareholders → Decrease in overall capital efficiency
③ Cumulative effect of repeated CB issuance
CB issuance → interest cost increases → real profitability decreases
- Dilution upon conversion → decline in value per share
Why Value Up fails
The value-up program requires an increase in PBR and dividends.
But:
What if a company with a negative investment gap increases dividends?
- Reduced future investment capacity → Decrease in mid- to long-term value
- Temporary boost to stock prices → unsustainable
A true value upgrade requires a change in the quality of investment decisions.
That quality comes from governance.
Governance comes from a network of executives.
Relational risk quantifies this link.
key message
PBR 1x cannot be a goal.
The real goal is for the investment gap rate to be positive.
And that is only possible if the relationship network changes.
■ Reference materials
Kim et al. (2021): Expropriation structure and rising cost of capital
- Schwetzler (2024): Capital allocation efficiency and minority shareholders
- RaymondsRisk White Paper: https://www.konnect-ai.net/whitepaper
#relationalrisk #raymondsrisk #raymondsindex #konnectai
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